Everything You Need to Know to Win More Bets … Whether You Are a Beginner or a Bettor Who Hasn’t Been Able to Achieve the Success You Desire
Welcome to our Ultimate Betting Guide. Whether you are a beginning bettor, someone who has placed bets before but hasn’t been able to achieve the success you desire or you simply have some betting questions … this guide is filled with the information you need to know.
We cover everything from the fundamentals of betting, including betting theory, betting odds and how to manage your bankroll, to the various types of betting to understanding bookmakers to more tips for succeeding at betting.
Please read each chapter carefully as we have gone to great lengths to ensure that every subject is covered in-depth and contains valuable tips and advice to help you succeed.
The bottom line is we want to see you win. We want to see you beat the bookies and grow your bankroll to new heights. So let’s get started!
If you are a beginner, or even if you are a more experienced bettor who has a few questions, this chapter is a must read for you.
We are going to start out discussing betting theory. A good understanding of betting theory will provide you with the foundation you need to achieve long term success.
The first thing you need to know about betting is that it is not an exact science.
Nobody has discovered a system that will allow you to win all the time.
Particularly as betting relates to soccer, which is what we are talking about in this guide, you must always remember that you are betting on humans, not robots, and humans are subject to performance ups and downs and to making mistakes which can lead to upsets.
Nothing is guaranteed in the world of betting. That being said there are systems that you can use to increase your odds of winning over the long term.
The key is finding the system that works best for you and your individual situation.Here are the top 5 most popular betting systems with our opinions of each.
We believe some of these can truly help you grow your bankroll over time while others are best to stay away from. Let’s look at the five most popular systems:
1. Flat Betting System
This is a simple system where you bet the same amount each time no matter whether you won or lost on the previous bet. This system eliminates the complexity of other systems which can lead to you making unfortunate mistakes. There is a saying “keep it simple stupid (or KISS)” that can be applied to a lot of different things, including betting. We believe keeping it simple is the best way to ensure success. There is no need to make something easy, more complex.
2. Martingale System
The Martingale started out as a roulette system but is now being used to bet on soccer. Here is how the system works: Basically, when you win you make the same bet on the next match. When you lose, you double your bet on the next match. The strategy behind this system is that by doubling your bet when you lose you are guaranteed to eventually come out ahead. Unfortunately, in real life you can’t always double your bet after a loss. At some point if you lose too many times in a row you are probably going to run out of money.
3. Fibonacci System
The Fibonacci Betting System is a progressive system that is based upon the theory that the soccer draw is the most difficult outcome for bookmakers to predict. So with the Fibonacci strategy you would bet on a draw when the probability is above 2.618 and if you lose you would bet on another one. With each bet you would also increase your stake by the following amounts: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, etc. The idea is that as long as you increase your stake using the previous outlined sequence any win would immediately overcome your previous losses. The problem with this strategy is that any long streak without a draw is going to seriously damage your bankroll. Another option with the Fibonacci system is to not solely bet on draws but instead place other bets such as to win or to lose – only with each bet you follow the Fibonacci number sequence mentioned previously.
4. Multibet System
Simply put, we believe this type of betting strategy offers little reward and a whole lot of risk. Here’s how it works: You use a single stake to bet on multiple soccer matches. As you can imagine the likelihood of this type of bet ending with all wins is low and because you are betting your returns on each bet you lose everything when a bet is lost. This is a type of bet that bookies love because it gives them multiple chances to win.
5. D’Alembert System
This system started as a roulette gambling system but can also be used for soccer. With this system you increase your bets after a loss, but the increase is less than with thebefore mentioned Martingale System. What you do with the D’Alembert is you pick a starting bet, then you increase your bets by one after a loss, and decrease them by one after a win. The theory is that once you have as many wins as losses, you will be in profit by the amount of bets you’ve placed.The problem with this system is that if go on a losing run your bets will increase a lot and you may quickly find yourself in a hole that can only be recovered by going on an equal winning run, which isn’t likely to happen.
One thing to note with each of the systems mentioned above is that whichever system you use its ultimate success will depend on the quality of bets you are placing.
In other words, if you are receiving good tips and have access to good match information you may be able to win with any of these systems.
Good tips equal good results. That’s why your selection of a tips site and your commitment to research and analysis can be essential to your success.
Should you decide to join an online tips site, be sure to look for one that has extensive records of past picks posted on the site. Also, look for a site with numerous positive testimonials and that has been
Remember, with betting theory no system is going to win 100% of the time. You are going to lose eventually. The key to your long term success is to lose as little as possible and to manage your money so that when you do lose it does not have a big negative impact on your bankroll.
We’ll talk more about money management a little later in this chapter but right now let’s take a quick look at understanding betting odds.
Odds at their most basic are a numerical expression of the likelihood of an event taking place. The first key concept that you need to understand when it comes to betting odds is “chance.”
What is the “chance” or the likelihood of something occurring? One way to show chance is to look at flipping a US quarter.
If you flip this coin the chance of it landing with “heads” up is 50% and the chance of it landing with “tails” up is also 50%. It’s important to note here that the possible outcomes of any event should add up to 100%.
For another example of chance, we can look at a six-sided dice. The chances of any one side of the dice coming up on a throw is 1 in 6 or 16.66%.
So to move chance to soccer, if we have a match between Team A and Team B there will be three possible outcomes for your bet – win, loss or draw – and the odds for those three outcomes should add up to 100%. So as an example, Team A could have a 65% chance of winning, Team B a 15% chance of winning and there could be a 20% chance of a draw.
When it comes to betting on soccer, odds are most commonly expressed in three ways:
Now that we have a better understanding of betting odds, which is important if you want to grow your betting bankroll over time, let’s look at money management, which will help you avoid suffering that big loss that can wipe out your bankroll and end your dream of being a successful bettor once and for all.
The key concept for good money management is to never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Probably the most well-known money management system for bettors is the Kelly Criterion.
There are actually two versions of the Kelly Criterion – a simple version that is used by most bettors and a more complex version which requires you to do a little more math.
Let’s take a quick closer look at the Kelly Criterion. The simple version goes like this:
With probability p you will make a profit of b times what you bet, otherwise you lose the bet.
In this scenario, the optimal amount to bet is bpb−(1−p). (Note that p is a number from 0 to 1. So 50% probability means that p is 0 5.) Gamblers call pb−(1−p) their edge, and b their odds. This is where the rule “bet edge over odds” comes from.
Here is an example of the Kelly Criterion taken from an article on Wikipedia:
For simple bets with two outcomes, one involving losing the entire amount bet, and the other involving winning the bet amount multiplied by the payoff odds, the Kelly bet is:
f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to bet, i.e. how much to bet;
b is the net odds received on the bet ("b to 1"); that is, you could win $b (on top of getting back your $1 bet) for a $1 bet
p is the probability of winning;
q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p.
To break down money management into an even easier set of concepts, here’s what you need to do:
1. Decide what type of bettor you want to be
Aggressive, conservative or somewhere in the middle
2. Understand your true bankroll
Many beginning investors know that their bankroll is “x” but they also know in the back of their mind that should they draw down “x” they are willing to add “y” funds that they currently have in reserve in another account. Don’t do this as this can lead to unplanned losses that severely impact your financial stability. In comparison, professional bettors always know the full, total size of the bankroll. Follow their lead and have your total bankroll in one account.
3. Use the above information to determine how much you bet
For example, very aggressive bettors may bet 4% to 5% of their bankroll. More conservative investors may bet 1% to 2%. You need to find a number that you are comfortable with and that will allow you to grow your bankroll while also leaving room for you to learn and make mistakes.
Whatever number you decide on, just remember that if you set the amount too high a losing streak could quickly wipe you out and end your dream of soccer betting success – so don’t be too aggressive if you are just starting out.Smaller bet sizes can allow you to stick to your plan, be more disciplined.
Something else that you will want to do when it comes to managing your money is guard against overconfidence. If you win a few bets in a row, don’t put it all on the next match or raise your bet amount too high. If you do either of these things it can lead to a situation where you lose all your gains in one bet or you go from being in a winning or plus position to being in a hole you can’t get out of.
Now that we have a better understanding of money management, let’s move on to the next chapter where we will discuss the types of betting that are available today.